One Authoritarian's Playbook

Host: Guess which authoritarian leader we're talking about! 

Clue number one: he led his country for four years before being voted out of office. 

SFX: ding 

Host: Clue number two! A few years later, he was was re-elected. 

SFX: ding ding 

Host: Clue number three! Back in power, he went after the following groups: migrants and asylum seekers, courts, LGBTQ people, non-profits, universities, the media. 

SFX: ding ding ding 

Host: OK, I’m not calling on you because you are wrong. Here are some more clues: he is very critical of the European Union. To keep migrants and asylum seekers out, he built a fence on the southern border of his country. Also, he got supermajorities in the legislature and... changed the Constitution... 15 times! 

Archival/EuroNews/3-15-2024: [in Hungarian] We know which gate to march through and how to reorganise the European Union. . . 

Host: Ding Ding Ding Ding! For those of you who don't happen to speak Hungarian, the answer is... Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Orbán has been in power since 2010. That's fifteen straight years in a country where they have actual elections! In the process he has vilified migrants, asylum seekers and gay people, gained almost complete control over the media, buddied up to Vladimir Putin, and become a darling of the international far right.  

Archival/Fox News/8-5-21: {Carlson} Why did you take a different position on migration from other European countries? 

Host: That's Tucker Carlson…. 

{Orban} That was the only reasonable behavior . . . 

Host: …interviewing Orban, back when Carlson was still employed at Fox News. 

Archival/Fox News/8-5-21: {Orban} What is going on here is building up a society, which is very successful. 

Host: In recent years, with the rise of right wing parties in Europe and elsewhere, Orbán's star has risen. He has become a model for authoritarians around the world. So who is Viktor Orbán? How did he get into power? And how has he lasted so long in power?  

This is Rights & Wrongs, a podcast from Human Rights Watch. I'm Ngofeen Mputubwele. I am a writer, a lawyer, and a radio producer. Human Rights Watch asked me to look at human rights hotspots around the world through the eyes and ears of people on the front lines of history. 

This week, one authoritarian's playbook. 

Ngofeen: First question: how do I pronounce your name correctly? 

Stefania: So it's Stefania. 

Ngofeen: Stefania 

Stefania: Yes, but if you call me Stefia or Steffie, that's also great. 

Ngofeen: Yeah. Yeah, yeah. But I know how it goes and it's like not your actual name, but you're fine with it. But like, we wanna try, we wanna try at least. And then, and then how do I say your last name? 

Stefania: That's tricky. Kopronczay. 

Ngofeen: Kapronczay 

Stefania: Yes. That was really good. Wow. Very impressive. [Laughter.] 

Host: Stefania Kapronczay is from Hungary, a country where the names are not as difficult to pronounce as you might think. My people come from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the my name is a challenge for a lot of people. Even the co-producer of this podcast, Curtis Fox, who I’ve been working with for well over a year[!], has yet to master it… 

Fox: [practicing Mbutubwele, Ngofeen Mbutubwele, fade under.] 

Host: …one day he’ll get it… In any case! Stefania is a lawyer and civil rights defender. Until recently she was the director of the Hungarian Civil Liberties Union. At the moment she’s a visiting scholar at Columbia University in New York City. I wanted to talk to Stefania about Viktor Orbán because she not only knows the story of how Orbán rose to power, she has also personally felt the sting of his power. 

Stefania:  Uh, I can tell you one story if you want. 

Host: Several years ago a pro-Órban blog published a cartoon caricaturing the Hungarian-born George Soros as the powerbroker behind anti-Hungarian forces.  

 Stefania: And it showed George Soros as holding back some dogs. And, uh, the dogs had human faces and one of the faces was mine. 

[beat] 

Host: Viktor Orbán was born in 1963. Hungary was then part of the communist Eastern Bloc, and still was twenty years later, when Stefania was born, in 1983. Stefania was 5 years old when Orbán made his debut on the national stage. 

Archival/Orban Viktor/1989.06.16: [Orbán being introduced] 

Host: In June of 1989, there was a rally in Heroes Square in Budapest. Huge. Hundreds of thousands of people. One of the speakers was 26-year old Viktor Orbán. 

[Orban 1989 speech in Hungarian, from Viktor Orbán’s YouTube channel] [Orban in Hungarian] My Fellow Citizens! Since the beginning of the Russian occupation and the communist dictatorship 40 years ago ... 

 Stefania: That was a very brave speech because it was before the Soviet Union fell. It was when still Soviet soldiers were on Hungarian ground and he says in the speech that Russians should go home. 

Archival/Orban Viktor: Hungarian people once had an opportunity, once had adequate courage and strength to attempt to reach the objectives articulated in 1848: national independence and political freedom. To this day our goals have not changed, today we still have not relented on ’48, just as we have not relented on ’56 either. 

 Stefania: And it is a very powerful speech. You feel the political charisma shining through that speech. And that is very important because he was definitely voicing a common sentiment among many Hungarians. Especially because if we look at what freedom meant, uh, in the early years of the change of the system, it was very much freedom from Russia, freedom from the Soviet Union. 

[bell ringing from video of proclamation of republic ] 

Host: On October 23, 1989... now just a few weeks before the Berlin Wall finally came down… the acting president officially proclaimed the Republic of Hungary...  

[sounds of speech] 

Viki: I was there, uh, in front of Parliament, age nine when the Republic of Hungary was announced. 

Host: ...this is Viki.... 

Viki: Actually I was talking to one of my classmates because of course I was only nine and I had no idea what was so important about this event, but they were like two adults, hushing, like, please stay quiet because this is something really solemn and important. 

Host: "Viktória Serdült" grew up to become a journalist, and the republic that was formed that day would be part of her beat. Viki didn't know it at the time, but the young man who would come to dominate Hungarian politics was busy turning the youth movement he was involved in into a political force. It was called Fidesz, which translates as “allliance of young democrats.” 

Viki: And they were mostly liberals and some conservatives probably, but Fidesz at that time, that later it became a party around 1990 that was considered a liberal party, and Orban was one of the leaders of this party. 

Host: ...and this party got the attention of George Soros, the same philanthropist that Orbán would later demonize…  

Viki: He gave them a lot of money because it was a young, uh, youth movement in Hungary and that was something that should be supported by the Soros Foundation . So not only did he pay for Orban’s scholarship in Oxford. But he also bought, like, photocopy machines for Fidesz in their offices. 

Host: Viki says that the idea that Orbán was a progressive or liberal in his youth doesn't quite ring fully true to her. 

Viki: My idea is that Orban, well of course he was a liberal in a sense of being a young person in the nineties in Hungary, and his Fidesz movement was also a liberal party, but he himself he, he had the tendency to lead and he had the tendency to rule over other members of the, of his party, if you know what I mean. He has always been more conservative. That of course, grew as he grew older as a politician. 

Host: The first democratically elected government in 1990 was conservative. It didn't include Fidesz in its coalition, because Fidesz was then a liberal party. By the election in 1994, Fidesz was on the cusp of victory. But a financial scandal sapped their popularity and they got 6% of the vote.  

Orbán had begun reorienting Fidesz from a youthful liberal party to a conservative party. As one Hungarian told me, you could see it happening. One day Orbán and Fidesz, they’re wearing jeans and sweatshirts on TV, and the next day it’s suits and ties.  

[beat] 

In talking with Hungarians about Orbán’s rise, I kept hearing about a divide in Hungarian society… between people in the capital, Budapest, and everyone else, like Orbán, who come from rural areas or small towns. From what I learned, this divide is stark, and Orbán keenly felt it. As did Stefania… 

Stefania:  I was born in Budapest, but uh, in the suburbs and to parents who were not from Budapest, who came to Budapest, and when I started going to law school, that was basically my first time when I went downtown in Budapest. And I met all these people around me who, uh, through their connections, through the long history of their family, somehow understood how things work much better than I do. And I, I felt that I am not knowledgeable enough and I don't have as much power. Uh, I don't have the networks as they do. So, this is something that I can also attest to. 

Host: To explain Orban’s political ambition, a number of Hungarian commentators have attributed it, at least in part, to Orban’s resentment of elites in Budapest. And his turn from liberal to conservative, Stefania says, was, at least in part, opportunistic…  

Stefania:   Orban and the leadership of Fidesz understood, uh, that the Hungarian society holds conservative values. And I believe that, power and, being elected was just simply more important than the values, on which, this party was founded on. 

Host: Orbán reorganized this new conservative Fidesz from a loosely governed collective into a top-down hierarchical political party, with Orbán on top.  

And… it worked. In the 1998 elections Fidesz won a plurality. They formed a coalition government, and Orbán, aged 35, became prime minister. Under his leadership Hungary joined NATO, and even took steps towards membership in the European Union. Yet, as Stefania says, for those who cared to look, there were signs of his future authoritarian bent…  

Stefania:  Already, journalists and human rights defenders were saying that they can see how he started already reshaping the legal system in a way that, there are fewer checks and balances on power. 

Host: Orbán governed as a conservative, yet it doesn’t quite take. In 2002, there are elections, and this time, he loses! …to the Socialists. Back to Viktória Serdült… 

Viki: There's a persistent rumor about Orban, which I cannot really prove. But, but I will tell you to you, that Órban mostly blamed the leftist media for his loss in 2002. So the rumor has it that he said that when he comes back to power in, uh, whenever that should be the first thing that he will do is control the media. 

Host: As Viki said, that's just a rumor, but it’s borne out by what he actually does when he regains power in 2010. In any case, according to Stefania, Orbán uses his defeat to polarize the country… 

 Stefania: Orbán is a big football fan or soccer fan. There are two teams. You have to choose a team, like which team you are on, and it kind of translates into his politics as well that you are either with us or against us. There is no in-between. There is, if you're criticizing us, you cannot be standing for Hungary. And that's why I and some of my, a lot of my colleagues were characterized as traitors. 

Host: After the defeat in 2002, Orbán and Fidesz rebuilt their support.  

Stephania: He organized civic circles, basically more like cultural, local organizations, that focus very much on religious conservative values. Also, uh, organizing activities like, uh, hiking together, cooking together, celebrating religious events together. These became very important in driving the vote. 

Host: But! Órban and Fidesz lost again to the socialists in 2006. People were pretty content with that status quo. 

 Stefania: It was seen that the country is doing well, that, uh, the governing coalition is driving economic development. People are doing better. We just joined the European Union in 2004. That was a very important milestone. Um, so there was, I think, a general optimism about how the things were. 

Host: That optimism? It doesn’t last.  

Ngofeen:  In 2010 he gets reelected. Why? 

Stefania: Um, a big reason is, uh, the 2008 economic crisis that also hit Hungary. Another big reason is the very widespread and obvious corruption and incompetence of the government that was in power between 2002 and 2010. 

Host: Stefania also says that, one of the deeper reasons for Orbán’s appeal has to do with the Hungarian public’s attitude toward democracy… 

 Stefania: According to a 1989 survey, Hungarians expected three things from the change of the system, freedom, political participation, and economic prosperity, and less economic inequality. And actually the change of the system, the transition to democracy didn't deliver on the economic equality part, and this really contributed to the disillusionment in democratic institutions. And Victor Orban, he very much understands this dynamic. I think besides, um, his will to grab power, his political charisma, we also have to notice that he knows the Hungarian people of Psyche very, very much. 

Host: Democracy. Didn’t. Deliver. Coming up, we’ll hear what Orbán delivered on his return to power. 

[HRW/Zama ad break] 

Host: We're back. And we're back in 2010.  

Viki: in 2010 when he came to power for the second time, we didn't really see what was coming. 

Host: By this time Viki is working as a journalist. 

Viki: In 2010 when he came to power, I think most of the country was like expecting quite a peaceful and like prospering time for Hungary. 

Host: But not everyone. By this time Stefania was working for the Hungarian Civil Liberties Union or HCLU… 

Stefania:  So after the election, I started hearing from my colleagues, my parents, you know, these people who were around, in the 1990s, that, , they fear what the Orban government will bring, that there will be a centralization of power, checks and balances will be demolished. 

Viki: The key to 2010 is super majority. Two thirds of the seats in parliament and that power gives you the possibility to change basically any law and even the constitution. 

And he knew this and he like started it right away. 

Host: With that supermajority in Parliament, Fidesz and Orban wrote an entirely new constitution. It’s not even called a Constitution anymore. It’s called Fundamental Law. 

Viki: this document has been modified 15 times in the last 10 years. So anything they wanna reach politically, they write it in the Constitution, and from there onwards, nobody can change the law. 

 Stefania:  So the Constitution for Orban is not something that all Hungarians agree on and something that might today limit this government's power. But it's more a political instrument that can be changed on a whim. 

Host: There’s a lot of talk these days about the “authoritarian playbook.” What wannabe authoritarians do to dismantle a democratic system and assume total control over a government. Every country is different of course, but what Orbán did in Hungary has come to be seen as a kind model for the extreme right in Europe and around the world. And as a cautionary tale for those who care about corruption, civil society, human rights and democracy. 

Stefania:  So the first Orban term, 2010 2014, is about restructuring the legal system. It's about making sure that there is no institution that can serve as a check on government's power. It's about seizing the constitutional court. 

Host: He also starts increasing control of the lower courts. With its supermajority in Parliament, Fidesz lower the retirement age for judges, forcing hundreds of them out, and replacing them with party loyalists… 

Stefania:  Second term is very much about silencing criticism. So to make sure that the media is essentially, most of the media is essentially controlled by the government, and the independent media is pushed to the corner, 

Host: By 2016 about 90% of media outlets are owned by Orbán allies, or by people allied with Fidesz. As one Hungarian journalist told me, in rural areas most people don’t have money to pay for cable TV, so all they see are channels the government controls. Same for radio. For print and internet media, the screws are tightening… 

Viki: For me personally, I used to work at several, newspaper outlets during my career and many of these outlets were either, taken over by the government or they were like, basically shut down. So I think for the first time that for me, uh, that was more personal because there was a very, very, uh, famous paper in Hungary called Népszabadság.  

And I was not working there, but many of my friends were. And that was like basically shot down from one day to the other. So that is when I felt that I think something's not right. 

Host: Viki has been working as a journalist, in Hungary, for 21 years. Currently she's writing for the website of a magazine, and she focuses on Hungarian politics, society, and the EU. So, there's still enough of a free press in Hungary for at least a few real journalists to earn their living. But just recently Orbán targeted pretty much any organization critical of the government with legislation that would restrict or even shut them down if they receive foreign funding, which independent media organizations do. 

Viki: Uh, if you can, you can shut down a newspaper, from a Tuesday to a Wednesday, something's not right in that country. 

[beat] 

Host: So: control of the constitution, check. Co-opting the legal system, check. Dominating news media, check. We didn’t get into this, but government oversight of higher education, check, check, check. What else is in Orban’s authoritarian playbook? 

Stefania:  We, we can see a lot of hate campaigns, scapegoating, first migrants, then civil society, then, LGBTQ, Hungarians, for whatever is wrong, uh, with the country, uh, and using this hate as to drive out the vote. 

Host: And it works. Orban is re-elected in 2014, in 2018, and again, with its highest percentage of votes ever, in 2022. For Stefania, it goes back to Hungarian democracy not living up to its promise of economic equality… 

Stefania: … And this really contributed to the disillusionment in democratic institutions to the level that in, uh, 2015, 30% of the Hungarian population, according to a survey, uh, thought that it doesn't matter if we live in a democracy or a dictatorship.  

After the change of the system, there was this joke among, uh, Hungarians that it was not really a change of system, but a change in gangsters. Meaning that what we really changed is who are on top and, uh, in Órban's politics, this is something that you can really see that he's responding to this feeling among, uh, Hungarians that uh, they are not better off than their parents were. 

Viki: I don't think that the majority of Hungarians noticed what was happening. And also it's very important to mention at this point that, Fidesz and all these politicians, it's basically a party of lawyers. Like Órban himself is a lawyer. Many of the politicians are lawyers. Uh, mostly the top level politicians are. 

So they knew how to do this legally. So everything that Fides did was done legally. Now, of course, sometimes they had to change the laws to make these actions legal, but you can't really say that they did anything illegally. 

Host: Yet somehow, legally or otherwise, Orbán and his circle of friends, the young men who came up with him in the 1990s, have struck it rich... 

Viki: Well imagine as as a prime minister, his monthly salary is 5 million forints, 

Ngofeen: That’s about 13,800 USD or 12,200 Euros a month. 

Viki: 5 million forints is quite a big amount in Hungary, but it's not overly rich. And with that 5 million forints, he still has like a huge mansion in the countryside of Hungary 

Host: That mansion? His dad owns it, technically. 

Viki: And all his family members are mega-rich. 

And his best friend from elementary school, he is now the wealthiest person in Hungary, and he is even on the US edition of the Forbes richest people in the world list.  

Host: Historically, corruption has been the Achilles heel for authoritarian regimes. At some point, people get fed up with the self-dealing, the ostentatious displays of ill-gotten wealth, the cronyism. But Stefania notes that Orbán and Fidesz have partially inoculated themselves by carefully crafting an anti-corruption image… 

Stefania:  Fidesz went after everyday bribery, small scale corruption early on. So the bribe that you would have to pay for to the police officer or the so-called gratuity money that was expected in the healthcare system, they legislated against it. Prosecutors went against it, and it became a much more rare occurrence. At the same time, u bigger scale, corruption was taken into another level. It's called inverted state capture that is happening in Hungary. So there is a very strong state, state, and if you wanna do business, you have to have really close ties to the government, especially above a certain level of business. 

Host: High level corruption is also harder to see and understand, especially when the news media is not covering it. Also, says Stefania, public cynicism plays a role here. 

 Stefania: Most of the Hungarians hold the belief that everyone is corrupt. This is just kind of the nature of the things. So we cannot really change it. 

Host: According to Transparency International, Hungary is the most corrupt country in the EU. It is also ranked as one of the poorest. In recent years, about a million people, many of them young, have picked up and left Hungary. That’s out of a population of only 10 million. So 10% of the people: gone.  

So what does it feel like to live in a country where democracy is on life support… after 15 years of authoritarian drift?  

Stefania:  So if you live your life in Hungary, there's huge difference If you live in Budapest, which is the capital big city with 2 million inhabitants, because you can see rainbow flags on some buildings, and you can see people who are, dining out in restaurants and people speak fairly and fairly often, there is, um, there is a demonstration that you encounter. And, um, quite a lot of people speak about politics. People read online newspapers. Uh, as you go outside of Budapest and you are approaching smaller cities and even more rural, I think the first thing that you notice is the silence about politics and a lot of people lowering their voice. You also notice there is a very low trust in institutions that the state, local government, the state agencies, all the healthcare system we are deliver. And at the same time, as you talk to people, you also sense that they don't feel that they have any power in changing that.  

Host: Yet in 2025, after 15 years of Orbán, change seems to be in the air. Maybe because of the corruption, the brain drain, the poverty, Orbán is now facing some serious political competition… 

Viki: in the last year, there is a figure in Hungary who, who rose to prominence. His name is Peter Major and he's, uh, very funnily, he's an ex Fidesz member. He's a Fidesz insider, and he used to work for Orban and his system. What he says is that he had enough of what Orban was doing, and he had enough of these riches that his, his friends are having and the direction where the country is heading. So he founded his own party. And even though it's sort of a right wing, conservative party, it has become so popular in the last year. Now according to some opinion polls, he is ahead of Orban in the poll. So for the first time in many years, there is actually a real challenger for Orban. 

Host: Elections are scheduled for 2026. But given all that we’ve heard, it just begs the question… 

Ngofeen: Is Hungary still a democracy? 

Viki: It's certainly not a dictatorship. Uh, but I would like describe Hungary, with Orban's own words. It's an illiberal democracy, so in theory it is a democracy. We have free elections. We do have free press. I'm working at hvg.hu, which is supposed to be independent media, but the state capture of so many institutions, the state capture of universities ministries civil society. The press is, is at such a high level that I would say that democracy is in danger if we continue in the same direction. 

Host: You can read more about human rights in Viktor Orban’s Hungary on Human Rights Watch’s website hwr dot org. The archival clips in this episode are from Viktor Orbán’s YouTube page, Fox news and Euro News. 

You’ve been listening to Rights & Wrongs from Human Rights Watch. This episode was produced by me and Curtis Fox. Our associate producer is Sophie Soloway. Ifé Fatunase and Stacy Sullivan are the executive producers. Thanks also to Anthony Gale.  

I’m Ngofeen Mputubwele. I’ll be back with another episode in two weeks. Thanks for listening!